The LED industry is in short supply and continues to last for at least 2-3 years

The 2016 annual report of the domestic LED industry and the first quarterly report of 2017 have been released, and the overall performance has been reported. Among them, in the first quarter of 2017, the revenue of 40 of 43 LED listed companies increased year-on-year, and the net profit of 35 LED companies in the first quarter increased year-on-year, among them, the net profit has increased by more than 30 to 27 listed companies, accounting for more than 60. The improvement of the core financial data of the LED industry is obvious, which verifies that the trend of the LED industry is solid and reliable. Judging from the first quarterly report of the LED industry in 2016 and 2017, the core financial indicators of listed companies all show a significant improvement trend, core indicators include ROE, revenue scale and growth rate, net profit and growth rate of the parent, gross profit rate, net profit and operating cash flow, etc. The trend of LED industry is verified by solid financial data, which further strengthens the confidence of the industry in optimistic about the trend of LED industry. The LED industry is in short supply and is expected to last at least 2- In the past three years, Guoxin Securities has recently conducted extensive exchanges and research with the LED industry chain on the spot, continuously verifying that the supply and demand of the LED industry are booming. International manufacturers such as Osram also said that the supply of LED chips is in short supply, while LED chip manufacturers Jingdian, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Aoyang Shunchang and Dehao Runda all said that the current demand is in short supply. The main reason is still 2010- MOCVD machines in 2011 are being phased out, with the number of models accounting for about 1/3 of the total. It is estimated that in the next 2- The annual elimination volume for 3 years accounts for 5 ~ of the current total production capacity ~ 10, about 5 million-10 million pieces. With the demand for downstream lighting increasing by more than 20 and the demand for small spacing exploding, the demand for new LED chips will increase by another 10 million pieces every year. According to statistics, the total effective production capacity by the end of 2017 is about 83. 28 million pieces, while the demand will exceed 92. 35 million pieces. In the next 2-The supply has been in short supply for 3 years. The improvement of LED industry data reflects the general trend of LED manufacturing's transfer to China in essence. The general trend of LED manufacturing's transfer to China cannot be questioned, china's electronics industry has fully possessed excellent process control and cost management capabilities through years of accumulation. At the same time, the bonus for engineers is gradually being released, to promote Chinese enterprises to develop and own more international advanced technologies with independent intellectual property rights, it will slow down as the technological progress of major international manufacturers encounters bottlenecks, chinese enterprises will make full use of the advantages of national policies, industrial capital and engineer dividends to achieve post-production, and will eventually defeat traditional international manufacturers and become the trend of industry development.