LED lighting industry: the third light source revolution is coming

LED lighting is the third light source revolution after incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp. Due to its many advantages such as energy conservation, environmental protection, long service life and wide application, major countries and regions in the world are vigorously developing LED industry. At present, LED industry has entered a period of rapid development, the LED market scale in 2013 was 12. 4 billion US dollars, and in 2020 it will reach 150 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 42. 6. As one of the major LED producing and consuming countries, with the gradual advancement of policies and the outbreak of demand, China's LED industry is facing significant historical opportunities and will have huge investment opportunities. The investment gold mine of LED industry is rich in the change of industrial development trend. First, after technological progress and industrial upgrading are accelerated and costs are greatly reduced, the application scope of LED products is continuously increasing and the market scale is expanding day by day. 3 ~ Within 5 years, the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand scale will reach 30 ~ 40. Second, demand start-up and policy promotion, LED industry driving force from backlight application to lighting application, 2013 ~ In 2016, the penetration rate of LED lighting increased from more than 10 to about 50, driving the whole LED lighting industry chain into a high boom cycle. Third, the competition pattern has changed, and LED production capacity has gradually shifted from the United States, Japan and the European Union to mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea. Fourth, the speed of industrial integration has obviously accelerated, the industrial concentration has gradually increased, and the industry leaders with core technological advantages, channel advantages and scale advantages have grown rapidly. Investment strategy: under the trend of LED lighting outbreak, we are optimistic about the long-term investment value of LED plate. The investment viewpoint is divided into the following aspects :[img] /uploads/allimg/140329/22-1403291021453 T. jpg [/img] First, look at the entire LED plate, with super-matching value: In the long run, the lighting penetration rate will accelerate, expected 2013 ~ In 2016, the penetration rate of LED lighting increased from more than 10 to about 50, driving the whole LED lighting industry chain into a high boom cycle. Second, the upstream and downstream links of the medium and long-term LED industry chain have investment value: judging from the value chain and development trend of the lighting industry, the profit of LED epitaxial chips currently accounts for about 70, and the packaging link is about 10 ~ 15, and the application link is about 10 ~ 20, the chip link at the front end of the value chain occupies a very high added value. With the promotion of LED application and brand service status, the added value of downstream application and brand service will gradually increase. We believe that the investment value of two chips and lighting appliances in the medium and long term LED industry chain has investment value in the short and medium term. Third, the short-term configuration time point has arrived, the current LED plate adjustment in place, buy points. In the short term, we believe that from the perspective of fundamentals and valuation, the current configuration of the LED plate has a time point. 1 Taiwan 1 ~ LED industry data in February exceeded expectations; 2 Traditional 4 ~ The peak season in May is coming; (3) We expect the annual revenue growth rate of LED sector in 14/15 to be above 50 and 30, and the corresponding PE is only 30 and 21 times at present. Fourthly, the acceleration of industrial integration and the investment opportunities in the rapid growth of advantageous enterprises in segments: the integration speed of LED industry has obviously accelerated, and the industrial concentration has gradually increased, the leading segment of the industrial chain with core technology advantages, channel advantages and scale advantages will grow rapidly through extensive expansion.