The prosperity of LED industry in 2014 is optimistic1

Last week, the chairman of LED companies such as Jingdian, Yuanyuan, Yiguang and Dongbei expressed optimism about the prosperity of the LED industry in 2014. It is expected that LED will be out of the dilemma of oversupply. The first half don't have to worry about requirements for the first half of demand of confidence main based on North America market of start and lighting giant of response strategy. According to DOE data, as of 2012, North American incandescent lamps accounted for about of bulb lamps, while by the end of 2012, the penetration rate of LED was less than 1. therefore, the United States has completely banned white from New Year's Day in 2014, creating space for LED lighting. In 2013, CREE took the lead in instigating the price war, which made the original lighting giants Philips, GE, OSRAM and so on all in a passive situation. In order to maintain the market share, lighting giants such as Philips all made extremely aggressive sales strategies. dachang's growth rate of shipments in 2014 is preset at 80- In 100, in the first half of the year, lighting giants had enough motivation to strive for the LED lighting market, thus driving the rapid growth of LED demand. Don't worry about supply in the second half of the year. Based on the current situation that the industry is not weak in the off-season in January, the market has given more optimistic expectations for the shortage of LED chips and the price increase. however, the situation of chip shortage and price increase was hard to see at least in the first half of 2014: Although the industry estimates that Sanan Optoelectronics and wafer Optoelectronics will complete the test of Veeco and Aixtron new MOCVD equipment in the second quarter, and based on the consideration of higher cost performance of new models of equipment, 1- In the second quarter, the purchase of MOCVD equipment will be reduced or even stopped. However, due to the optimistic expectation of LED lighting, some enterprises have already completed the expansion of production by the end of 2013. it is estimated that without considering the release of the capacity of Sanan, Dehao and other equipment, 2014 1-At least 60 domestic in the second quarter The capacity of 80 devices will be released, so the optimistic expectation of chip prices in the first half of the year is stable. On the contrary, due to 1- The decline of purchasing equipment power in the second quarter will be the later release period of upstream production capacity in the first half of the year, and the supply-demand relationship of LED chips will become more benign in the second half of the year. even if the demand for LED started in the third quarter is still lower than expected, there is no need to worry about the impact on chip enterprises. The international supply chain benefits a lot: due to the strict control of the supply chain by large factories, it usually takes several years from Factory review to mass purchase. At present, there are not many enterprises that can enter the international supply chain. traditional lighting manufacturers such as sunshine lighting are the main beneficiary enterprises, and LED chip leader San'an Optoelectronics bypasses the patent barrier by entering the main product, and is expected to enter the international supply chain by contracting for the product; In the domestic market, due to the commercial environment, bad money drives out good money in the era of traditional lighting, making high-quality enterprises only do export market. Although the situation LED lighting faces has improved, it is still difficult to avoid bad money driving out good money. only enterprises with channel brands can enjoy the benefits brought by brand premium.