LED lighting era is coming in 2014
With the advent of the LED lighting era in 2014, the turning point of the industry is upward, profits are improved, and policy catalysis is accelerating. In 2014, the prosperity of the industry and confidence in expanding production will continue to pick up, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to resume high growth. The key point is that the difference between the low price of one LED and the energy-saving lamp is nearly double; Second: the variety of 10 US dollars sweet point products has increased rapidly; Third, demand has entered a stage of highly elastic growth, and the sensitivity of demand to price has increased significantly. Fourth, the contribution ratio of LED lighting application output value will be equivalent to that of backlight, which is expected to reach more than 40. Fifth, the price decline in 2014 is relatively limited, with a single quarter decline of less than 5. From the financial point of view, the profitability of the industry continues to improve, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually stabilize. From the perspective of policy, the second wave of incandescent lamp prohibition peak in 2014 will accelerate the promotion of LED lighting related products. The demand for LED lighting in 2014 is expected to rise, or to drive the supply and demand of the whole industrial chain to improve. From the perspective of industrial chain, with the rapid growth of lighting application demand, experience 2012- 2013 de-productivity, MOCVD equipment capacity utilization rate will continue to rise in 2014, from 74 in 2013 to more than 85 ( Domestic from more than 63 in 2013 to more than 72) With the increase in the utilization rate of MOCVD equipment, the international leading manufacturers have planned to increase capital expenditures to demonstrate confidence in the future. The capacity utilization rate of MOCVD equipment has increased, driving the upstream demand for Mo source and Sapphire upward, and the supply and demand are expected to continue to improve. In terms of downstream packaging applications, as traditional lighting manufacturers accelerate their transformation to LED, the industry concentration will gradually increase, and the relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve. The acquisition in 2014 is expected to continue and increase flexibility. According to relevant statistics, there were more than ten mergers and acquisitions in the LED industry in 2013, involving 11 listed companies, including 8 packaging applications. it is mainly the expansion of product structure and product application fields, which involves the extension of industrial chain, mainly the further extension of packaging application fields to downstream applications or channels. According to our analysis, with the embodiment of the scale advantage, it is expected that the consolidation of industry acquisitions will continue in 2014, especially in the packaging application link, and more listed companies will launch a series of mergers and acquisitions with the help of listed platforms. in order to optimize the product structure and application fields.