LED industry market is bright

Guotai Junan expects that the launch of the lighting market benefiting from the LED industry is ushering in a good historical scene and has entered a three-year period of high prosperity; Mainland companies benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, and will enjoy the LED manufacturing chain transfer premium. Since last year, the LED industry has begun to pick up. A few years ago, the price of 5 w led lamps was 3- 4 times, however, in recent years, the price of upstream chips has dropped at a rate of about 30 per year, and the cost has generally dropped. By 2013, the price of LED terminal products will basically be the same as that of energy-saving lamps, LED industry is expected to enter the stage of fully replacing traditional lighting products. Guotai Junan expects that the launch of the lighting market benefiting from the LED industry is ushering in a good historical scene and has entered a three-year period of high prosperity; Mainland companies benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, and will enjoy the LED manufacturing chain transfer premium. The supply and demand pattern has entered a good history. 1) Guotai Junan estimates that the supply/demand ratio of the industry in 2014 is only 1. 04 (1. 1 is the safe water level) , Close to the high level of industry history in 2010; 2) Significant contraction on the supply side: CSA Statistics show that the total number of MOCVD units in China at the end of 2013 was 1090, an increase of only about 2012 units compared with 110; It is far lower than the growth rate of the industry and the growth rate of downstream application demand. With the substantial export of subsidies, future expansion will be more rational; 3) Fast volume on demand side: The LED lighting market has entered a high-speed growth range with a penetration rate of 15. Taking leading enterprises as an example, the year-on-year growth of new orders in 2014 will reach more than 2 times, and the average growth rate of the industry can also be doubled; With the start of the LED lighting cycle, it is expected that this round of boom will last for a long time. Profitability is expected to increase: the upstream is expected to raise prices structurally, and the downstream price drop range will narrow. 1) The industry chain survey shows that from the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, the chip price will drop within 3, which is far better than the market expectation of 10. It is expected that there will be a structural price increase in the future; In the medium and long term, as the mainstream size of the epitaxial wafer is switched to 4 inches, the chip size is reduced, and the light efficiency continues to improve, the chip profitability is expected to continue to optimize. 2) Downstream application products have been reduced to close to the price of energy-saving lamps after the market process of actively reducing prices, and there is limited room for subsequent price cuts. According to the survey, 3WLED lamps have fallen by 33 to 2 in the past year. 9 US dollars, only the same energy-saving lamp 1. 5 times; The domestic cost-effective products are close to the price of energy-saving lamps; In the medium and long term, with the increase of intelligent and dimmable ratio, the added value of application end is expected to increase. Ping An Securities believes that LED will run through the whole year in 2014. Under the background of lighting volume and rapid demand growth, many enterprises will usher in a double turning point of revenue and profit margin. Judging from the investigation of the industrial chain, many LED companies have the demand for mergers and acquisitions and refinancing this year. As the profit base of second-and third-tier LED enterprises is generally not high, the corresponding performance elasticity is very large. From the beginning of the year to the stock price increase, the industry leading gains represented by San'an Optoelectronics and sunshine lighting in A- shares are obviously lagging behind. Under the background of increasing competitiveness of Chinese enterprises, broad domestic demand market and bright prospects, Ping An believes that the market has underestimated the elasticity of this round of LED home lighting penetration rate increase to the overall industry. The demand for LED general lighting will definitely increase explosively, while MOCVD machine can no longer repeat the previous high investment and high growth. The supply and demand situation of LED chips is continuously improving. Ping An judged that the decline in chip prices this year is also about a dozen points, and there may be structural shortages in the second quarter. Analysts continue to strongly recommend San'an Optoelectronics. The company has consolidated its leading position in the chip industry, and wide forbidden band semiconductors are gaining momentum and have bright prospects. In terms of packaging in the middle stream, it is recommended to pay attention to the beneficiaries of industry integration and continue to recommend jufei optoelectronics with outstanding management capabilities. On the downstream side, Foshan Lighting with obvious channel advantages is recommended and sunshine lighting with its own channels is actively distributed due to the improvement of the industry economy.