LED industry, high prosperity, continuous industrial transfer, land factory, premium

The market is worried about the sustainability of the LED industry. Through comprehensive market research and analysis, it is believed that the launch of the LED industry's beneficial lighting market is ushering in a good historical scene and has entered a three-year period of high prosperity; Mainland companies benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, and will enjoy the LED manufacturing chain transfer premium. The supply and demand pattern has entered a good history. 1)The supply/demand ratio of the industry in 2014 is only 1. 04 (1. 1 is the safe water level) , Close to the high level of industry history in 2010; 2) The supply side contracted significantly, and the domestic MOCVD growth rate in 2013 was far lower than the industry growth rate and the downstream application demand growth rate. With the substantial export of subsidies, future expansion will be more rational; 3) Fast volume on demand side: The LED lighting market has entered a high-speed growth range with a penetration rate of 15. Taking leading enterprises as an example, the year-on-year growth of new orders in 2014 will reach more than 2 times, and the average growth rate of the industry can also be doubled; With the start of the LED lighting cycle, it is expected that this round of boom will last for a long time. Profitability is expected to increase: the upstream is expected to raise prices structurally, and the downstream price drop range will narrow. 1) The industry chain survey shows that from the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, the chip price will drop within 3, which is far better than the market expectation of 10. It is expected that there will be a structural price increase in the future; In the medium and long term, as the mainstream size of the epitaxial wafer is switched to 4 inches, the chip size is reduced, and the light efficiency continues to improve, the chip profitability is expected to continue to optimize. 2) Downstream application products have been reduced to close to the price of energy-saving lamps after the market process of actively reducing prices, and there is limited room for subsequent price cuts. According to the survey, 3WLED lamps have fallen by 33 to 2 in the past year. 9 US dollars, only the same energy-saving lamp 1. 5 times; The domestic cost-effective products are close to the price of energy-saving lamps; In the medium and long term, with the increase of intelligent and dimmable ratio, the added value of application end is expected to increase. The short-term boom has made a record good. Industry Chain survey shows: 1) The utilization rate of chip production capacity continues to be full. Due to the failure to form enough new production capacity in the short term, the supply of most varieties of chips has been tight since the second quarter; In order to seize the upstream resources, the downstream manufacturers have successively announced that they have signed a long-term order with the chip factory that does not lock the price for more than one year (History for the first time). 2) The visibility of LED lighting orders has exceeded the historical 3 months, and the current orders have reached 8-The level in October. Industrial transfer to the mainland to enjoy a premium. The entire industrial chain in the mainland has already been competitive, benefiting from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and supporting, and will bear the heavy responsibility of LED manufacturing. Research shows that after the application side becomes an international manufacturing center, domestic chips have accounted for more than half of domestic applications, and it is expected to gain a large share of overseas foundry companies; LED manufacturing is expected to breed similar semiconductor foundry in Mainland China-Oligopoly enterprises.