After three years of winter, the LED industry seems to be blooming in spring next year.
Foreign UBS Securities pointed out that the demand for LED lighting will increase by in 2014, of which household lighting will grow by next year, which is expected to drive the demand for LED chips by next year.
The 2010 s was the peak of the LED industry. At that time, Jingdian, the leading factory in China, earned more than half of its share capital in a year, with net profit per share (EPS)7 yuan (New Taiwan dollar, the same below); Packaging and brand factory Yiguang also reached 5. 52 yuan.
However, after China's LED production capacity was released, the profits of Taiwan factories decreased greatly. In the coming year, Crystal Power fell from the cloud to the world, leaving only 0. 2011 EPS.
5 yuan, in 2012, lost more than 1 yuan per share;
Yiguang has not lost money in the past two years by virtue of cost control, but EPS has also been cut by half year by year.
The bottom of LED will reverse next year. After three years of trough, the prospect of LED industry seems to be improving next year. The main kinetic energy comes from lighting, and the growth of backlight demand for tablet computers cannot be ignored.
Foreign UBS Securities pointed out in the new LED industry analysis report that if the chip area is used, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 62 next year. If the normal unit price falls year by year, LED lighting revenue will grow by about 37 next year.
In other words, the penetration rate of LED lighting will be only 3-3 this year-
5 will grow to 9 next year, while traditional incandescent lamps will decrease at a rate of 5 per year.
Bulb price cuts increase penetration UBS pointed out that the us led factory Kerui (CREE)It will be launched this year. 5 watt LED bulb (Replace 60 watt incandescent bulb)The retail price is only 9. US $97;
More importantly, this light bulb has passed the US Energy Star certification and can receive a subsidy of US $5 per bulb, which means that consumers can use 4. 5%.
It can be bought for $97, which is equivalent to an energy-saving bulb (About 2-$5)The price is equivalent.
UBS believes that this means that LED bulbs may have reached the Sweet point of price.
The chips of international big factories are also outsourced by UBS, pointing out that in the lighting market, the penetration rate of household lighting is low, which is because the price of LED bulbs was too high in the past, and it usually takes several years for home replacement to be recycled, but now the situation will change.
With the price reduction of LED bulbs, governments have banned incandescent lamps (See table)
, Coupled with the overall economic recovery, will encourage LED lighting fermentation.
UBS estimates that household LED lighting revenue will grow by 90 next year, far higher than commercial 37 and industrial 57.
Major international lighting factories such as Philips and Osram used to outsource only downstream packaging modules.
UBS analyst FredricStahl believes that due to the large increase in demand for LED lighting next year, large factories are considering adopting Asian LED chips at the upstream to improve price competitiveness.
The industry believes that the domestic leijing leading Crystal should benefit.
As for the backlight market, the momentum from TV is declining year by year.
UBS pointed out that although the penetration rate of LED TVs increased from 75 last year to 95 this year, the number of chips used per TV has dropped by 25 (Due to the reduction in the number of direct TV use).
Fortunately, there will be a slight improvement next year, mainly due to the larger size of the TV and the more popular high-resolution TV such as 4K2K (Higher backlight brightness required).
UBS estimates that TV's share of LED chips will drop from about 36 this year to 16 and 13 in the next year.
The LED demand for tablet computers will increase by next year, mainly due to the purchase of gas driven by Apple's iPad, the improvement of resolution and the fact that tablet computers are still in their growth period.
UBS estimates that tablet demand for LED chips will reach next year.