Six future market trends of LED industry

A few days ago, extremely frozen cool ( GlacialTech, Inc) Shawn Hsieh, chairman of the company, wrote an article to predict the technological development of LED lighting industry. He said that the LED lighting industry will bring a market size of 110 billion US dollars. Last year's sales have exceeded 25 billion US dollars, which is of the electronic market size. He also predicted the six major development trends of LED lighting industry in 2016. Shawn Hsieh, chairman of glacier tech, predicts Six trends in the LED industry in the future. Shawn Hsieh said that the LED industry is still in its initial stage, and the market is like a green wilderness with a large number of players, and the pattern is scattered. Some LED lighting brands such as Philips, Osram, Panasonic, General Electric, Vision brand, audeburg, Toshiba, Cooper Lighting, cree and Hubbell have a total market share of no more than 30 in the lighting industry. Most of the rest of the market space is occupied by smaller suppliers and some emerging enterprises with innovative products and innovative business models. Therefore, there are many opportunities in the LED lighting market, but the competition is also particularly fierce. According to the current market situation, Shawn Hsieh predicts that the LED lighting industry will have the following six major market trends in 2016: The price war in the LED lighting industry will be more intense, especially in the LED packaging field. In some aspects, LED lighting is similar to CPU. A complex finished product is assembled from components designed by different manufacturers, contractors and suppliers. Both are driven by semiconductor technology, just as Moore's Law has predicted the growth of CPU and memory performance over the years, the improvement of LED performance and luminous efficiency is also driven by the continuous improvement of transistor density and manufacturing process. The LED packaging market is like CPU, which needs to continuously improve production process to improve performance. However, in the computer industry, CPU is monopolized by Intel Group, while in the LED industry, there are several competitive brands and some local suppliers, so the market competition will be more intense. Price competition in this market segment means that the price of LED packaging will continue to decline while the performance will continue to improve. We expect the cost-effective energy-efficient LED lighting module to drop to 0. 5% by the end of this year. US $13/W, while the price of LED lighting modules with a performance of 150 lm/W will drop to 0. By the end of 2016. $10/W or less. Value sources will be shifted from LED lighting components to drivers and cooling modules. Shawn Hsieh predicts that the cost of a lighting module for a 100WLED lamp will reach about US $10 by the end of next year. For 100W mid-end and LED lamps, the cost of heat dissipation module or LED driver will be two to three times that of lighting elements. The value of LED lighting products will be transferred from LED lighting elements to LED drivers and heat dissipation modules. This is because the manufacturing process of LED packaging will become more and more automated, so the price of LED lighting components will become cheaper and cheaper. However, the production of heat dissipation modules and LED drivers depends more on raw materials and labor costs and lacks price elasticity. Unless the price of raw materials changes, the material cost of heat dissipation module or LED driver is almost constant and there will be no excessive fluctuation. The gross profit rate of LED lighting module will continue to impact other Zero devices. Compared with LED driver and heat dissipation design, LED packaging requires higher manpower and capital investment. Not only do we have to build a factory, but we also need to invest a lot of money to purchase packaging equipment. In addition, it also requires high operating costs and manpower reserves. Coupled with fierce competition, the profit is meager. On the other hand, in the LED power supply and heat dissipation industry, several design engineers are enough to design effective products with high cost performance, and the labor cost is relatively low. Moreover, the equipment used to manufacture LED drivers and heat dissipation modules often does not need to be so professional, and depreciation equipment can be used to be cheaper and have large profit margins. Therefore, the gross profit margin of LED lighting module will be higher than that of other Zero devices. COB packaging will have a bright future. As the cost of raw materials decreases, the quality and efficiency of COB will continue to improve. Sales of COB packaged products will continue to rise in the next few years. Especially compact COB suitable for more LED lamp designs. Now there are 100 W, 200 W, or even more than 300W COBLEDs on the market. Only a powerful COB plus high-quality lens, heat dissipation module and low-power LED driver are needed to help LED lamp manufacturers produce a 100W ~ 300W ( System lighting efficiency exceeds 100 lumens/watt, CRI80)Lighting products. The material cost of COB packaged lamps is obviously lower than that of traditional packaged lamps, and the assembly process is more simplified, thus further reducing the labor cost. The price competition market will undergo vertical integration, while the lighting market will become more and more focused. In the lighting industry, bulbs and lamps are relatively low in price, so they are suitable for vertical integration. Through LED packaging, plastic injection molding, metal Stamping, assembly, and post-packaging processes are fully automated to improve profit margins. However, due to the personalized design of lamps and specialized applications, the lighting market may not be able to effectively improve the price-performance ratio of each component, making the products more competitive. Therefore, companies positioned in the field of lighting products can benefit less from vertical integration and can consider focusing on expanding profits and market share of their own product markets. Although well-known brands occupy market advantages, emerging LED enterprises with innovative technologies and products still have the opportunity to rely on the rich array of high-quality LED packaging suppliers, and lamp manufacturers have many choices. With the development of cob led, lamp enterprises can manufacture LED lighting products more simply. This is why more and more new enterprises are constantly joining the industry, except for world-renowned brands and regional brands. Just as innovative technologies and business models have promoted the development of the computer industry, the LED industry will continue to mature. The next generation of LED lighting will be driven by advanced thinking LED enterprises that can see market trends and utilize new technologies.