LED lighting ushered in a golden development period

In fact, since 2013, domestic support policies for LED industry have been continuously introduced. The National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries and commissions have jointly compiled the 'semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry plan', pointing out that by 2015, incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W have all been eliminated. The development goal of LED lighting energy-saving industry is to increase the output value by about 30 per year and reach 450 billion yuan in 2015 ( LED lighting application products 180 billion yuan). Subsequently, various provinces and cities have also introduced corresponding support subsidy policies, such as the LED recommended product catalog issued by Guangdong. The above policies have been gradually implemented, and the LED industry has begun to walk out of the year-on-year downturn and gradually improved. In addition, according to relevant statistics, 60 of the domestic LED lighting products are sold abroad, and the main markets are Western Europe and North America. In December 18 last year, the United States decided to stop selling the best-selling 40-watt and 60-watt incandescent lamps, the huge market space in the future has triggered a warm pursuit of market funds. However, only relying on good news to stimulate, it is impossible to attract funds to continue to flow into a sector, and it is impossible to form a plate effect, which depends to a large extent on the improvement of industry fundamentals. After 2010, due to the encouragement and support of local policies, LED to serious overcapacity in the LED industry, related enterprises entered into vicious competition, and the prosperity of the industry continued to decline, for example, the growth rate of the upstream chip market dropped from 100 in 2010 to in 2012. However, in 2013, after the fierce price competition in the early stage and the elimination of some backward production capacity, the supply side of the industry began to shrink. According to the estimation of CITIC Securities, the stock of MOCVD machines in mainland China and Taiwan is about 1600, and the ineffective production capacity is about 600. At present, the comprehensive efficiency of some equipment with 1000 effective production capacity is about 80, which is already at a benign level. From the demand side, backlight, lighting and display screen are the three major parts of LED demand, of which backlight accounts for a large proportion. However, with the downward correction of backlight demand in 2013, the start of the trillion-level lighting sector in the potential market will push the LED sector to show explosive growth in 2014. In addition, the above changes in demand are also confirmed at the company level. According to Shenwan's three-level industry classification, there are 20 individual stocks in the LED sector, of which 13 stocks were pre-happy in third quarter of 2013, accounting for 65, with an average growth rate of more than 30. Market opportunities need to be explored in depth. From the perspective of market, the Great Leap Forward of TMT plate in 2013 has deepened the recognition of market funds on structural prices. However, with the expansion of the growth rate of various sub-sectors, the willingness of market funds to chase after the high is reduced, especially in the early stage of the mobile games and film and television and other sectors began to estimate the value of the market, the overall risk aversion has risen, new and withdrawn funds from the previous hotspots are trying to find value and increase. A private placement person interviewed by the reporter said that the LED sector has not had an obvious trend of rising prices since the end of 2012, showing a wide range of shocks, and the overall growth of the sector lags behind the entire TMT sector, from the perspective of plate rotation, in the later stage of each round of thematic investment, the funds will take turns to pull up such stocks in order to make investors believe that the market has obvious profit-making effect, it is conducive to the smooth realization of the chips from the early hotspots. However, although the LED industry has shown signs of improvement, we still have to realize that the industry as a whole is still in a state of overcapacity. In the face of new changes in the supply and demand sides, the size of investment opportunities will vary greatly. This requires us to start with new changes at the industry level to explore companies that can quickly adapt to and meet new needs. Only the performance of such companies will maintain rapid growth.