LED industry may meet the tide of bankruptcy next year

After experiencing investment fever and price cuts, domestic light-emitting diodes (LED)The industry is entering a meager profit era. With the huge investment in the past few years, the scale of the industry has begun to grow, which has also brought about overcapacity. LED enterprises are facing fierce competition in the survival of the fittest. Many people in the industry believe that the industry will face a cold wave in the short term, and shuffling is inevitable. This year's output value will reach 205. 9 billion. Although the price drop has already hit, the investment heat in the LED industry is still unabated. A report recently released by high-tech LED shows that the total output value of the domestic LED industry is expected to reach 205. 9 billion yuan by the end of 2012. The report shows that the total number of MOCVD equipment in China was 803 in 2011 and 917 in 2012, an increase of 114. Although the investment in major equipment has accelerated, the domestic chip output value has only increased by 20 this year, while the price of Sapphire has fallen by 35 year-on-year, and the price of LED chips has fallen by 32 year-on-year. From the overall point of view of this year, the situation in the upstream field has actually improved, which is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of investment in downstream application fields in the second and third quarters, A large part of it comes from the investment transferred from traditional lighting enterprises to LED industry. Zhang Xiaofei, CEO of Gaogong LED, said that judging from the overall upstream investment situation, the growth rate of epitaxial wafer investment has dropped from 46 last year to 10 this year, the growth rate of investment in downstream application fields was 21 last year and rose to 53 in 2012, so the investment focus of LED industry shifted from upstream to downstream. Zhang Xiaofei also predicted that there will be less than 30 epitaxial chip companies left next year, and three domestic MOCVD equipment manufacturers will appear, but there will be no product sales, and the packaging factory will close down 20, the bankruptcy rate of downstream display companies will accelerate, the penetration rate of LED downlights and spotlights in the domestic market will exceed 30, and the sales volume of LED lighting industry may reach 1 billion yuan. The price of chip packaging has dropped greatly. Over the past few years, the investment in the upstream chip field of LED has been huge. The price has dropped to 30 in 2010, and the performance index has doubled compared with 2010, and package field Average price with 2010 Compared decreased the 40 performance also in improve but relative slow a little terminal application products price also in decreased, the original 300 yuan product is consistent with the basic performance of the current 200 yuan LED product. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang Co. , Ltd. , observed that technological innovation has led to sharp price cuts for products, and downstream terminal profit margins have declined year by year. The huge investment in upstream chips in the past few years has LED to an oversupply of LED products. The oversupply of LED products is the reason for the price war, but there are many reasons. Many enterprises expect the LED market to be too large and rush in, blindly transforming the LED industry. Zheng Tiemin, general manager of Shandong Inspur Huaguang Co. , Ltd. said that some entrepreneurs only pay attention to immediate interests, and some enterprises do not receive policy subsidies and preferential policies, so they go to other places to expand production, because they saw the urgency of foreign governments to attract investment. Zheng Tiemin believes that the price war has to go through a complicated process of limiting production, stopping production, specializing in production and bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions, and integration. The remaining enterprises will gradually move towards a normal development path, as the performance of the product is further improved and the quality is further stabilized, the price of LED products will tend to be reasonable. The advantages and disadvantages of government subsidies in the past few years, with the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, local governments have vigorously supported the development of LED industries and introduced many preferential policies for industries. Zheng Tiemin believes that many local governments make blind decisions, make many unrealistic grand plans, and throw out attractive preferential policies, including giving away land, factories, etc. , which attract many enterprises to invest, it is also an important reason for the overcapacity of the industry. In this regard, diligent Optoelectronics, deputy general manager Zhu Bingzhong has different views. He believes that the national government subsidy policy is a very effective means to promote the development of emerging industries. This model is not Chinese characteristics. Many foreign enterprises have been up to now, they will also receive government subsidies. Zhu Bingzhong believes that the government's introduction of subsidy policies to provide research and development subsidies and research and development investment subsidies to enterprises can not only promote the progress of new technologies, but also stimulate the market and form mass production, promote the price reduction of raw materials and provide better support for the development of LED industry. The starting point of the government's subsidy policy for LED enterprises is to let a small number of enterprises drive the whole industry, pull a new growth point for energy conservation and emission reduction, and promote the development of LED industry in a better direction, there is no problem with the subsidy policy itself. The key is to see how enterprises can grasp and use the government's subsidy policy.