LED industry does not have to worry about supply and demand in 2014

There is no need to worry about demand in the first half of the year. Confidence in demand in the first half of the year is mainly based on the launch of the North American market and the coping strategies of lighting giants. According to DOE data, as of 2012, North American incandescent lamps accounted for about of bulb lamps, while the penetration rate of LED by the end of 2012 was less than 1, therefore, the United States has completely banned white lighting since New Year's Day 2014, creating space for LED lighting; In 2013, Cree took the lead in the price war, which made the original lighting giants Philips, GE, Osram, etc. all in a passive situation. In order to maintain the market share, Philips and other lighting giants all formulated extremely aggressive sales strategies, big factories set the growth rate of shipments in 2014 at 80- In the first half of 100, lighting giants have enough motivation to win over the LED lighting market, thus driving the rapid growth of LED demand. Don't worry about supply in the second half of the year. Based on the current situation that the industry is not weak in the off-season in January, the market has given more optimistic expectations for the shortage of LED chips and the price increase, however, the situation of chip shortage and price increase is difficult to see at least in the first half of 2014: Although the industry estimates that Sanan Optoelectronics (600703, stock bar) , Wafer Optoelectronics will complete the test of Veeco and Aixtron new MOCVD equipment in the second quarter, and based on the consideration of higher cost performance of the new model equipment in 1- In the second quarter, the purchase of MOCVD equipment will be reduced or even stopped. However, due to optimistic expectations for LED lighting, some enterprises have already completed the expansion of production by the end of 2013, it is expected that without considering the release of equipment capacity such as San 'an and Dehao, 2014-In the second quarter, there were at least 60- The capacity of 80 devices will be released, so the optimistic expectation of chip prices in the first half of the year is stable, on the contrary due to 1- The power of purchasing equipment will decline in the second quarter. The first half of the year will be the later release period of upstream production capacity. The supply-demand relationship of LED chips will become more benign in the second half of the year, even if the demand for LED is still lower than expected from the third quarter, there is no need to worry about the impact on chip enterprises; International supply chain benefits: due to the strict control of the supply chain by large factories, it usually takes several years from the factory to the mass purchase. At present, there are not many enterprises that can enter the international supply chain, sunshine lighting (600261, stock bar) Such as traditional lighting manufacturers are the main beneficiary enterprises, and LED chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics bypasses the patent barrier by entering the main product, and is expected to enter the international supply chain by contracting for the product; In the domestic market, due to the commercial environment, bad money drives out good money in the era of traditional lighting, making most high-quality enterprises only export to the market. Although the situation faced by LED lighting has improved, it is still difficult to avoid bad money driving out good money, only enterprises with channel brands can enjoy the benefits brought by brand premium.