LED industry development: low season is not light layout 2014

by:ALLTOP      2020-02-16
The ban on the sale of incandescent lamps has accelerated, and overseas demand is strong. Since the beginning of this year, China's customs data shows that the export growth of mainland LED lighting products is strong. In particular, in the second half of the year, the monthly ratio is above 40, and the speed increase is very obvious. Incandescent lamps below 60W have been banned from all over the world since 2014. Due to the distribution of goods in advance through channels, the demand pulling effect of LED replacement light sources has begun to highlight in the second half of 13 years, this has led to the growth of the mainland export market. Under the combined effect of technological progress, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion by large factories, we judge that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2014 is expected to exceed expectations. The supply and demand of chips are improving, and the profits of large manufacturers are expected to continue to improve. With the accelerated penetration of LED lighting, we judge that the demand for LED chips will increase by 30-in 2014-40. From the supply side, the expansion of major chip factories is more cautious, and the effective production capacity is expected to increase by 20-in 2014-30. So industry supply and demand is expected to better than 2013. We believe that the profitability of chips mainly depends on industry supply and demand, scale effect and product structure. Under the background of good supply and demand, the scale effect of Sanan and other chip manufacturers has been continuously strengthened, the product structure has been further optimized, and their profitability will continue to improve. First, the industry's off-season in the fourth quarter is not weak, and the main companies are operating well in the fourth quarter. Taiwan LED company 10- The revenue situation in November was good, and the utilization rate of crystal power capacity remained at 8-90%, revenue is better than expected. However, Yiguang and Dongbei said that the demand for lighting orders in North America surged and the TV Q3 inventory adjustment ended and the orders stabilized, and they were optimistic about 14Q1. In addition, according to research, the major LED companies in the mainland have maintained good orders and started work since the fourth quarter. Product prices are generally stable. The survey learned that chip prices have continued to be strong recently, and the profitability of chip factories has improved against the background of falling costs. In terms of devices, the price decline of lighting and backlight packaging devices in the fourth quarter was reduced to about 4. The price of the terminal bulb remained stable overall. We believe that price stability reflects a higher industry boom. The boom is looking forward to a good trend. Due to the early Lunar New Year this year, under the superposition of factors such as pre-holiday stocking and overseas customers' concentrated orders, the industry has continued to maintain both production and sales since December, we judge that the industry's boom before the Spring Festival will continue. After digesting stocks during the Spring Festival, March is expected to usher in a new wave of stock market. Second, the ban on the sale of incandescent lamps has accelerated, and overseas demand is strong. From the relevant data disclosed by China's customs since 2013, it can be seen that the export growth of mainland LED lighting products is strong. In particular, in the second half of the year, the monthly ratio is above 40, and the speed increase is very obvious. Incandescent lamps below 60W have been banned from all over the world since 2014. Due to the distribution of goods in advance through channels, the demand pulling effect of LED replacement light sources has begun to highlight in the second half of 13 years, this has led to the growth of the mainland export market. From different regions, Japan and the European Union are at the forefront of light source replacement, while the North American market has become the new growth force. According to research, some of the previous businesses that focused on exporting to the EU have begun to move to the North American market. We expect the penetration rate of LED lighting in the United States to increase from 10 in 13 years to about 25 in 14 years. At the same time, major lighting manufacturers are also optimistic about the increase in the proportion of LED lighting. Philips, Osram and NVC accounted for nearly 30 percent of LED business revenue in 2013, and the goal is to increase to 50 by 2015. Under the combined effect of technological progress, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion by large factories, we judge that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2014 is expected to exceed expectations. In the early stage of the rapid development of LED lighting, the main market force is the replacement of traditional lighting stock by LED applications. From the perspective of specific customers, LED lighting in the past two years is mainly for outdoor applications, industrial and commercial places, etc. With the rapid improvement of cost performance, the broader office, home and low-end industrial and commercial lighting market is about to open (Light source ownership accounts for more than 2/3). Third, the supply and demand of chips are improving, and the profits of large manufacturers are expected to continue to improve. With the accelerated penetration of LED lighting, we judge that the demand for LED chips will increase by 30-in 2014-40. From the supply side, the expansion of major chip factories is more cautious, and the effective production capacity is expected to increase by 20-30. So 14 years industry supply and demand is expected to better than 13 years. Chip profitability mainly depends on industry supply and demand, scale effect and product structure. Under the background of good supply and demand, the scale effect of Sanan and other chip manufacturers has been continuously strengthened, the product structure has been further optimized, and their profitability will continue to improve. The LED industry is not established in the off-season of the fourth quarter. Looking forward to the future, we believe that LED lighting will penetrate beyond expectations under the combined effects of technological progress, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion by large factories. It is suggested to continue to lay out the LED lighting plate and pay attention to the following main lines: 1)Brand light source factory with high-quality channel resources; 2) The profitability elasticity of Sanan, Dehao and other chip businesses under high prosperity; 3) Packaging enterprises whose key customers continue to break through and have relatively definite performance; 4) Companies that have greater flexibility in export business or participate in the market through OEM.
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