LED industry concentration increases, leading enterprises have prominent advantages

From the perspective of LED industry cycle, after a deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform has been relatively sufficient, and the LED industry has been in the opening of the second wavelength of the S-type industry curve: from the perspective of the upstream supply of LED, the concentration of industrial production capacity has accelerated and formed higher industry barriers to curb disorderly expansion of production capacity; At the same time, the continuous application of downstream LED industry will usher in a turning point of prosperity after experiencing a deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016. Driven by new applications such as lighting and small-pitch display, the industry is expected to start a new round of growth. From the perspective of LED industry cycle, after a deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform has been relatively sufficient, and the LED industry has been in the opening of the second wavelength of the S-type industry curve: from the perspective of the upstream supply of LED, the concentration of industrial production capacity has accelerated and formed higher industry barriers to curb disorderly expansion of production capacity; At the same time, the continuous application and innovation in the downstream drive the vigorous development of the entire industrial chain. Looking at the development process of the LED industry, landscape Lighting, LCD backlight, outdoor lighting, outdoor large screen display and other applications have become the driving forces for the rapid development of the industry at different stages. From the current point of view, the increasing penetration rate of LED lighting, the intelligent networking of LED lighting, and the accelerated outbreak of small-pitch display are becoming the main driving forces for a new round of LED industry demand. China's chip products are moving towards the world. Foreign chip leaders hand over some product orders to domestic enterprises for processing. According to LEDinside data, domestic chip exports accounted for 9. 5% of the total domestic chip output value in 2016. 6, up 1 year on year in 15 years. 6 percentage points. In 2016, the output value of chips increased by more than 10 year on year. Supply side: in 2016, the supply side reform of the LED upstream was sufficient, and the supply side reform of the LED industrial chain was relatively sufficient to accelerate the improvement of concentration. According to the data, there were more than 20 in 2015, about 4000 LED-related enterprises withdrew from the market. Take chip companies as an example. According to data, the market share of the top five chip companies in 2014 has increased to more than 67, and it is expected to exceed 70 in 2016. According to industry insiders, after a round of reshuffle, the government subsidy target has changed: at present, only those enterprises that can become leaders are subsidized, and the subsidy has been narrowed, some small and medium-sized enterprises are less likely to want to get subsidies. After the subsidy was canceled in 2015, the investment of new production line machines of enterprises increased greatly, and many small enterprises would not be able to afford it. In 2016, major international chip manufacturers reduced their production capacity one after another or canceled their production expansion plans. The regional advantages of leading domestic chip enterprises continued to emerge. Jingdian and CREE began to reduce production several times in the second half of 15 years. By the beginning of 16 years, they had reduced production by a total of 25. At the beginning of 16 years, Sanan Optoelectronics terminated 47 sets of MOCVD purchase contracts from German merchants, samsung and LG shut down some production capacity, the new century has 2 ~ There is no plan to expand production for 3 years, and there is no plan to join the new machine. At the same time, due to the cancellation of MOCVD subsidies by the Chinese government in 2015, the pressure on the capital investment of new production line machines has become prominent, and the impulse of domestic small and medium-sized chip manufacturers to expand production has dropped sharply. Demand side: the penetration rate of LED lighting increased rapidly in 2016, and the penetration rate of smart lighting and small spacing detonated new hot spots in 2015 was only 27. The LED lighting market will continue to grow rapidly in and. From the perspective of downstream applications, the general lighting market, which is the main LED application direction, has a penetration rate of 27. 5% in 2015. 2 (Digitimes) It is expected that the penetration rate will exceed 31 in 2016. 3. The market scale can reach 34. 6 billion US dollars. It is estimated that the penetration rate will exceed 36 in 2017 and the market scale will grow rapidly by more than 10. LED lighting is intelligent and networked, and the space is increased by more than 1. 3 times. Philips said: the lighting value has changed from monomer to interconnected intelligent LED lighting system and lighting service, with a market space of 65 billion euros, up 30 billion from the market size of 130 US dollars in 2015. Philips launched HUE series of smart lighting products as early as 2012, featuring humanized functions such as time-limited switch, theme change, application reminder, etc. , with good user experience. Obviously high. Therefore, smart lighting will be the first to penetrate into the home lighting market, thus improving the overall penetration rate of civil LED lighting. In the next 10 years, LED light sources are expected to replace all traditional light sources. Since the median luminous efficiency of LED lighting is 130 ~ 150lm/w, high luminous efficiency has been developed to 300lm/w, which is significantly higher than that of traditional incandescent lamps (15lm/w)Halogen lamp (20lm/w)Fluorescent lamp (85lm/w) Such as traditional light sources, with the continuous improvement of light efficiency, the cost of chips and other consumables decreases, and the scale effect drives the overall overall cost of lamps to continue to decrease. It is expected to completely replace all traditional light sources in the next 10 years. The small-pitch LED display market is developing at a high speed, with a compound growth of more than 24 in the next five years. With the continuous maturity of LED packaging technology and the gradual reduction of the volume of packaging devices, small-pitch display screens are entering indoors from outdoors, gradually replacing the existing DLP and LCD splicing screens, it has become another killer application in the field of large screen display. Strategic View: demand for LED chips exceeds supply in 2017. We are optimistic about the future development of the industry. To sum up, the production capacity of LED chips in 2017 is about 83. 28 million pieces, and the demand is about 92. 35 million pieces. The overall LED chip industry is in a steady growth state. The steady-state characteristic of supply and demand balance is that the production capacity of any industry is slightly higher than the demand, while the demand for LED in 2017 is still 12. 5 steady growth, and supply is greater than demand, so the LED chip industry is in short supply, and the industry performance is expected to grow steadily.