LED chips are in short supply, and the faucet benefits from stability

From the perspective of LED industry cycle, after a deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform is relatively sufficient. LED industry has been in the second wavelength of S-type industry curve: From the perspective of LED upstream supply, the concentration of industrial production capacity has accelerated, forming higher industrial barriers and curbing disorderly expansion of production capacity; At the same time, the downstream application innovation drives the industrial chain LED to enter the era of stable growth from full competition, and Chinese products to the world. From the perspective of LED industry cycle, after a deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform is relatively sufficient, and the LED industry has been in the second wave of the S-type industry curve: From the perspective of the upstream supply of LED, the concentration of industry production capacity has accelerated, forming higher industry barriers, curb disorderly capacity expansion; At the same time, downstream application innovation drives the vigorous development of the industrial chain. From the current point of view, LED lighting accelerated penetration, LED lighting intelligent networking to promote market space increased by 1. Three times and the accelerated explosive growth shown by small spacing are becoming the main driving force for the new round of LED industry demand prosperity. Supply side: in 2016, the newly added production capacity contracted sharply and the old models withdrew. In 2017, the effective production capacity was 83. 28 million pieces. As of 2016, the effective production capacity was about 1083 units (49 machine and above)The corresponding production capacity is about 63 million pieces/year. And currently 45 pieces ~ 49 models ( Discount contract 1033 k465i 54 machine capacity of about 60. 24 million pieces/year) In a weak start-up situation, it will be phased out over time. In 2016, the overall supply and demand remained weak, and some products were structurally tight. It is understood that in 2017, LED chip leading enterprises increased by about 345 units ( Convert Veeco K465i Model 54 Machine). It includes the improvement of some old models that purchase second-hand equipment, so the effective production capacity will reach 83. 28 million pieces/year by the end of 2017. Demand side: chip demand in 2017 was 92. 35 million pieces, up 12. 5 according to estimates, the demand for LED epitaxial wafers in 2017 was 92. 35 million pieces (Convert 2 pieces) Among them, the demand for lighting chips increased by 47. 04 million; The demand for outdoor full-color display screens increased by 26. 02 million to pieces; The demand for small indoor spacing increased by 1. 02 million to pieces; Mobile phone backlight demand 1. 39 million pieces; Tablet PC backlight demand 440 thousand pieces; Computer and TV backlight demand 6. 99 million pieces; The demand for automotive lamps is 1. 06 million pieces; About 8. 39 million others. To sum up, we can see that in 2017, the total demand area of chips is estimated to be 92. 35 million pieces, an increase of about. 5. Judgment: LED chips are in short supply in 2017, and leading enterprises are strongly optimistic. To sum up, by the end of 2017, the effective production capacity of LED chips will be about 83. 28 million pieces, with a demand of about 92. 35 million pieces. We believe that the steady-state characteristic of supply and demand balance is that the production capacity of any industry is slightly higher than the demand, while the demand for LED in 2017 is still 12. 5%. 5 steady growth, so we judge that LED chips are in short supply in 2017. Therefore, we are optimistic about the industry's chip leaders: Aoyang Shunchang, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, etc.