The supply-demand relationship of LED industry chain has changed and the industry is facing new opportunities and challenges

by:ALLTOP      2019-12-22
The signs we see are :(1) In 2016, the upstream price of LED industry chain increased frequently, with some products rising by more than 15; (2) 2016 downstream LED lighting enterprise revenue better usher in a turning point more than enterprise with than growth more than 40. The apparent reason is that the price increase of raw materials is conducted downstream, but in fact, the supply-demand relationship of LED industry chain has changed. There are obvious signs of improvement in the supply and demand structure of LED industry. The upstream has entered a price increase cycle and the downstream performance is outstanding. The signs we see are :(1) In 2016, the upstream price of LED industry chain increased frequently, with some products rising by more than 15; (2) 2016 downstream LED lighting enterprise revenue better usher in a turning point more than enterprise with than growth more than 40. The apparent reason is that the price increase of raw materials is conducted downstream, but in fact, the supply-demand relationship of LED industry chain has changed. LED industry chain demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, 16 years of small spacing ushered in the outbreak, demand side Analysis 1: LED lighting penetration rate is only 27. 2. The ban on Bering since October 1 has prompted LED lighting fixtures to further accelerate the replacement of incandescent lamps. It is estimated that 60 of the 15-year LED bulb production capacity can be consumed. It is estimated that the annual compound growth rate of LED lighting will reach by 2020. 36. Demand side Analysis 2: The indoor and outdoor small-pitch LED market continues to be hot, with a demand of more than 140 billion in 16 years, and 17- In 18 years, there will still be nearly 40 billion new demand per year, while the current capacity of small-pitch LED is about 70 billion, with a huge gap between supply and demand. To sum up, the demand has improved significantly. LED industry chain: the expansion of upstream chip capacity is limited in 16 years, and the concentration of packaging industry has significantly increased. Analysis of supply side 1: the 13th five-year plan no longer includes LED industry in the cultivation industry, subsidies for LED chip enterprises are gradually narrowing. The overall upstream chip capacity has been significantly suppressed in essence. The order quantity of only more than 30 MOVCD manufacturers Aixtron and Veeco, which occupy 90 of MOVCD supply, can reflect that the upstream capacity expansion will slow down significantly. Supply-side analysis 2: After 15 years of deep reshuffle, nearly 4000 LED-related companies have withdrawn from the market, of which low-end backward packaging production capacity has been fully eliminated and industry concentration has increased significantly, leading packaging companies with good cost control capabilities will benefit from the increase in scale effect and a significant increase in bargaining power. The supply and demand pattern of LED is tight and will continue until 2018. After 15 years of deep reshuffle in the LED industry, the overall supply pattern of the LED industry has been fully adjusted, the entry threshold of the industry has been raised, and the new supply will be greatly reduced, leading companies have expanded their economies of scale and their bargaining power has been significantly improved. Moreover, due to the contraction of upstream subsidies LED by the supply-side reform of the Chinese government, disorderly production capacity will be significantly suppressed in the future. At the same time, the demand side of LED lighting and small spacing is good for a long time, so the downstream demand of LED industry chain will continue to be greatly stimulated in the next 2 to 3 years.
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