The rapid development of LED industry will give birth to 10 billion-level enterprises

In recent years, the LED industry has been favored by the investment community due to the rapid expansion of the industry and the rapid expansion of the market scale. However, this kind of prosperous scene looks prosperous, however, many industry giants in the LED industry are deeply worried. Some insiders said that at present, most of the downstream customers of LED enterprises have more and more credits, the payment cycle is getting longer and longer, and the phenomenon of arrears in the industrial chain is becoming more and more serious. Reporters learned from the second CEO Forum of the 2013 high-tech LED conference held in Guangzhou recently that in the past two years, the LED industry has experienced serious overcapacity and frequent closures. At the beginning of this year, with the opening of the LED lighting market, the entire industrial chain is thriving. Despite the sharp increase in orders from enterprises, the fierce price war almost runs through the upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain. Zhang Xiaofei, head of the high-tech LED Industry Research Institute and chairman of the high-tech LED, even asserted that in the next five years, the entire industry will face a major industrial reshuffle, and unlisted companies will be basically eliminated or integrated. Dispute: in the next five years, the industry will produce 10 billion-level enterprises? In 2018, will an LED enterprise be able to achieve 10 billion yuan? At the second CEO Forum held on November 25, 20 LED industry leaders, including Philips, qinshang Optoelectronics, Tsinghua Tongfang and Hongli radio and television, made a bet on this issue. It is reported that the G20- LED is a creative imitation of the international G20 summit model, in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the entire industrial chain in various segments of the field to select domestic and foreign, in the concept, society, some people responsible for the industry together to form the G20 organization. The point of view is basically divided into two factions. Zhou Xuejun, marketing director of Philips Asia, believes that in the Chinese market, Philips Lighting sales are less than 6 billion, and Lei's is only 3 billion. If sales are to reach 10 billion, he doubts this. He believes that in the future direction, Philips's monopoly in the field of fluorescent lamps will not appear again. With the arrival of LED, it will be smaller than before. The opportunities it creates may lead to some excellent enterprises in the market segments. The level of Chinese companies is similar, and it is very difficult to eat each other. Ai Xiaoming, CEO of Osram China, believes that LED sales in China exceed 10 billion, which is only a matter of time. From now on, in 2018, the market was 100 billion and 10 billion was only 1/10. Therefore, it is possible to exceed 10 billion, and it may come from domestic enterprises, if they do well in technology. Because any industry cannot be so scattered as it is today, and it must be centralized in the end to form industrial integration. After the integration, there will be 10 billion enterprises. Zhang Xiaofei, the secretary-general of the Forum, agreed with Ai Xiaoming's point of view that the next five years will be a new round of industrial reshuffle, most upstream companies die, and the survival rate is only about 30. There are 1750 enterprises in the middle reaches. In the downstream field, the mortality rate of the entire LED lighting enterprise exceeds 50, and the proportion of LED lighting enterprises will exceed that of traditional lighting. From the perspective of the integration of the industry, it is not difficult to have a billion-level enterprise. Tan Changlin, general manager of TSMC solid state lighting, said that it is impossible to have a 10 billion-level enterprise, because it is changing all day long. If you invest in this automation, it may change tomorrow, so integration is the best way. It is not the integration of industry, but the integration of upstream and downstream technologies. It is predicted that non-listed companies will be basically eliminated in the next five years. In fact, the phenomenon of industry integration has already emerged. This year, some enterprises have already started the integration strategy of enterprises. Dehaurunda acquired NVC Lighting to carry out vertical integration of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain; San'an Optoelectronics plans to acquire Taiwan's Yuanyuan optoelectronics and US lumens, both horizontal and vertical integration. Recently, Liad announced the acquisition of Jinda lighting, hoping to speed up the expansion of the company's LED lighting business sector with the help of the latter's technical advantages, project experience, channel resources and customer resources. But in Zhang Xiaofei's view, 2014 is the year of real hands-on, and 2013 is the year of mouth. The number of enterprises focusing on LED sales will reach a peak, and the total number of enterprises in the LED industry will also reach a peak, and the market competition will begin to be very fierce. Some enterprises will be integrated and withdrawn. The situation of the provincial level and the first-and second-level cities in the circulation field will be relatively clear, but the third-and fourth-level cities and county-level markets still have opportunities to enter, enterprises began to find their own market segments. 2015 is a node, the industry integration is very fierce, the channel construction will be more cruel, and the entire market layout is basically completed. In 2016, a large number of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches withdrew, and the differentiation of the middle and lower reaches was particularly obvious, starting to clean up the battlefield after integration. 2017 will be a decisive year. It is not necessarily the leader, but you have to stand in your own direction and occupy your own space in some market segments to survive. In 2018, the market reached the basic balance of supply and demand, that is, the dynamic balance of supply and demand. The market was in a state of fine-tuning, but the market size of the integrated lighting industry began to shrink and a new round of reshuffle was about to begin. Most of the enterprises that have been shuffled and whose turnover is below the others have little chance of survival in the future. Non-listed companies are basically eliminated or integrated, non-listed companies, excluding listed companies after the IPO opens next year. Now it is different from the past. The situation has been changing and the country's financial policy is changing. Non-listed companies, I believe there will be many difficulties. Zhang Xiaofei said. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, holds the same view. He believes that from the industrial stage, the stage of industry integration is a price war, and it is about to enter an era of product performance competition, and then transfer to patent competition.