LED lighting industry began to shuffle this year

In the context of the revenue multiplication plan, China will enter a stage of consumption upgrading. In 2014, the LED industry will begin to reshuffle, and the probability of survival of enterprises with turnover below others is not high. In 2014, the photovoltaic market in China and the United States will remain the main source of the increase in the photovoltaic market. Domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation has great development space. 2013 is an exciting year. Due to the rapid development of the lighting industry, the production capacity of the upper, middle and lower reaches has been brought into full play, and overcapacity has also been slowed down. 2013 is also a year that makes people in the industry very anxious. Although there are many orders and revenue has increased, the gross profit margin of enterprises is getting lower and lower due to price war. With the increasing maturity of domestic LED technology, the cost performance of LED lighting products is gradually approaching or even lower than that of traditional lighting, and the acceptance degree of consumers is gradually increasing. 2013 is considered a good year by many LED industry people. Product sales are booming all the way, but problems such as product homogenization, price war and low gross profit also plague the development of the entire industry. High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) It is predicted that the output value of China's LED industry will reach 263. 8 billion yuan in 2013, up year on year. In the next five years, LED applications will enter a slow growth period in addition to indoor and outdoor, automobile lighting and special lighting. The industrial chain has developed in an all-round way. Since the Ministry of Science and Technology launched ten cities and ten thousand lamps in 2009, the domestic LED industry has ushered in an investment boom, with various capitals pouring in, in particular, the excess investment in the upstream Sapphire and epitaxial Chip Fields is particularly serious. Upstream, the domestic sapphire output value is now, and the future output value will be. MOCVD ownership is, and future output will still be. In 2013, the total number of MOCVD stations in China reached 972, but the profit of a single station is still far from that of multinational enterprises such as Philips and Osram. The quality and cost performance of domestic chips have increased rapidly, which has also sharply lowered the price of imported chips. As a result, many chip factories in Taiwan cannot exist independently and must rely on production in mainland China and sales in the mainland. The fact that Taiwan's Qili and Jingfa closed down last year also verified this. In the midstream packaging field, China's LED packaging industry has already had a considerable economic scale and has become one of the main LED packaging production bases. Domestic packaging devices occupy most of the domestic market, the proportion of imported packaged devices in the Chinese market has rapidly decreased. In the future, there will be no more than eight imported device brands, and domestic devices will occupy the main domestic market share because the domestic price is much lower. Some of the domestically packaged devices are exported to foreign countries, and domestic packaging manufacturers begin to OEM to foreign manufacturers (OEM). This also shows that domestic devices have reached a high cost performance ratio, and China's LED packaging trend. Lighting Demand is a big cake in the LED application market. Since last year, many upper and middle reaches enterprises have begun to enter the lighting market. Sanan and Qianzhao have set up lighting subsidiaries one after another. Downstream, China's export lighting will account for most of the market, estimated to account for about 70. Most foreign LED lighting will be OEM by Chinese enterprises. Only Philips and Osram can compete with Chinese enterprises in China. There will be a big reshuffle in the next five years. After several years of development, the domestic LED industry has made great progress in technology, scale, products and other aspects, but it is also facing many problems, LED overcapacity, large number of enterprises, uneven product performance levels, and increasingly fierce price wars, many enterprises do not have a clear enterprise and product positioning. In the next five years, the LED industry will be reshuffled. Whether it is a listed company, a state-owned enterprise or a private enterprise, it will face a very severe situation in the next five years. Especially in the next three years, LED industry big fish eat small fish, fast fish eat slow fish, will be the industry's normal, because the market space is so large, this is also the inevitable result of market rules. Unlisted companies may be basically eliminated or integrated. GLII believes that China's local chip manufacturers will not survive more than 12, and domestic MOCVD will not survive more than 2. Most upstream companies die and the survival rate is around 30. GLII survey data show that the number of enterprises involved in LED packaging in China reached 1750 in 2012. These 1750 homes can survive about 40. Some of these enterprises will become large-scale manufacturers, especially the listed enterprises such as Ruifeng optoelectronics and Hongli Optoelectronics will continue to grow. After the small and medium-sized enterprises are eliminated, the space vacated will be given to large and medium-sized enterprises. After several years of development, the penetration rate of LED lighting is continuously increasing. The penetration rate of LED lighting will exceed 60 in 2015. By the end of, the output value of LED lighting will account for of the total output value of lighting. Traditional lighting enterprises will die if they transform slowly to LED, and forming strategic alliance with packaging enterprises is the way out. The mortality rate of the whole LED lighting enterprise exceeds 50, and the proportion of LED lighting enterprises will exceed that of traditional lighting. For outdoor lighting, LED lighting enterprises have advantages in outdoor lighting, and listed companies and state-owned enterprises will account for most of the market; For lighting, the market share of traditional lighting enterprises is still larger. The listed LED lighting and packaging enterprises will have the advantages of capital and talents in lighting. The pattern of the industry in the next five years, I think, 2014 will be a year of real reshuffle. The chances of the shuffled enterprises surviving in the future with turnover below others are not high. In 2015, the industry integration was very fierce. In 2016, a large number of middle and lower reaches enterprises withdrew, and the differentiation between middle and lower reaches will be particularly obvious. 2017 is a decisive year. Who is the leader, the industry development will be clear at a glance. By 2018, the whole LED industry reached the basic balance of supply and demand in the market, that is, the dynamic balance of supply and demand. The market was in a state of fine-tuning, but the market scale of the lighting industry began to shrink and a new round of reshuffle was about to begin.