The era of LED lighting in 2014 is coming, the inflection point of the industry is upward, profits are improved, and policy catalysis is accelerated.
The prosperity of the industry and confidence in expanding production will continue to pick up in 2014, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to resume high growth.
The key point is that the low price difference between LED and energy-saving lamp is nearly double;
Second, the variety of US $10 sweet spot products has increased rapidly;
Third, demand has entered a stage of highly elastic growth, and the sensitivity of demand to price has greatly increased;
Fourth, the contribution ratio of LED lighting application output value will be equivalent to that of backlight, which is expected to reach more than 40. Fifth, the price decline in 2014 is relatively limited, with a single-quarter decline of less than 5.
From a financial point of view, the profitability of the industry continues to improve and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually stabilize.
From the perspective of policy, the second wave of incandescent lamp prohibition peak will be entered in 2014 to accelerate the promotion of LED lighting related products.
The demand for LED lighting is expected to rise in 2014, or to improve the supply and demand of the whole industrial chain.
From the perspective of industrial chain, with the rapid growth of lighting application demand, experience 2012-
With 2013 de-production capacity, the capacity utilization rate of MOCVD equipment will continue to rise in 2014, from 74 in 2013 to more than 85 so far (
Domestic from more than 63 in 2013 to more than 72)
As the utilization rate of MOCVD equipment increases, the international leading factories have planned to increase capital expenditure to demonstrate confidence in the future.
The capacity utilization rate of MOCVD equipment has increased, driving up the demand for upstream Mo sources and Sapphire, and the supply and demand are expected to continue to improve;
In terms of downstream packaging applications, as traditional lighting manufacturers accelerate their transformation to LED, the industry concentration will gradually increase, and the relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve.
The acquisition in 2014 is expected to continue and increase flexibility.
According to relevant statistics, there were more than 10 mergers and acquisitions in the LED industry in 2013, involving 11 listed companies, including 8 packaging applications, it is mainly the expansion of product structure and product application fields, which involves the extension of industrial chain, mainly the further extension of packaging application fields to downstream applications or channels.
According to our analysis, with the embodiment of the scale advantage, it is expected that the industry acquisition and consolidation will continue in 2014, especially in the packaging application link, more listed companies will launch a series of acquisitions and consolidation with the help of listed platforms, in order to optimize the product structure and application fields.