After three years of winter, the LED industry seems to be blooming in the spring next year.
Foreign UBS Securities pointed out that the demand for LED lighting will increase by in 2014, of which household lighting will grow by next year, which is expected to drive the demand for LED chips by next year.
The 2010 s was the peak of the LED industry. At that time, Jingdian, the leading factory in China, earned more than half of its share capital a year, with net profit per share (EPS)7 yuan (New Taiwan dollar, the same below); Packaging and brand factory Yiguang also reached 5. 52 yuan.
However, after China's LED production capacity was opened, Taiwan's profits were greatly reduced. In the coming year, Jingdian fell from the cloud to the world. In 2011, EPS was only 0.
5 yuan, in 2012, the loss per share exceeded 1 yuan;
In the past two years, with cost control, Yiguang has not lost money, but EPS has also cut half a year.
LED will reverse at the bottom of next year. After three years of trough, the prospects of the LED industry in the next year seem to be improving. The main kinetic energy comes from lighting, and the growth of backlight demand for tablet computers cannot be ignored.
Foreign UBS Securities pointed out in the new LED industry analysis report that if the chip area is used, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 62 in the next year. If it is included in the normal annual unit price, LED lighting revenue will grow by about 37 in the next year.
In other words, the penetration rate of LED lighting will be only 3-3 this year-
5 grow to 9 next year, while traditional incandescent lamps will decrease at a rate of 5 per year.
Bulb price cuts increase penetration UBS pointed out that the us led factory Kerui (CREE)Launched this year 9. 5 watt LED bulb (Replace 60 watt incandescent bulb)The retail price is only 9. $97;
More importantly, this bulb has passed the US Energy Star certification and can receive a subsidy of $5 per bulb, which means that consumers can use 4.
You can buy it for $97, which is equivalent to an energy-saving bulb (About 2-$5)The price is equivalent.
UBS believes that this means that LED bulbs may have reached the price sweet point.
UBS, which is also outsourced by major international manufacturers, pointed out that in the lighting market, the penetration rate of household lighting is low, because the price of LED bulbs was too high in the past, and it would take several years to recycle the home, but now the situation will change.
With the price reduction of LED bulbs, governments have banned incandescent lamps (See table)
, Coupled with the overall economic recovery, will encourage LED lighting fermentation.
UBS estimates that household LED lighting revenue will grow by 90 next year, far higher than commercial 37 and industrial 57.
International Lighting companies such as Philips and Osram used to outsource only downstream packaging modules.
UBS analyst FredricStahl believes that due to the surge in demand for LED lighting next year, large manufacturers are considering the use of Asian LED chips in the upstream to increase price competitiveness.
The industry believes that domestic epitaxial Crystal leading Crystal should benefit.
As for the backlight market, the kinetic energy from TV has declined year by year.
UBS pointed out that although the penetration rate of LED TVs increased from 75 last year to 95 this year, the number of chips used per TV has dropped by 25 (Due to the reduction in the number of direct TVs).
Fortunately, there will be a slight improvement next year, mainly due to the larger size of the TV and the more popular high-resolution TV such as 4K2K (Higher backlight brightness required).
UBS estimates that TV's share of LED chips will drop from about 36 this year to 16 and 13 in the next year.
The LED demand for tablet computers will increase by 90% next year, mainly due to the purchase of Apple iPad, coupled with the resolution and the tablet computer is still in the growth stage.
UBS estimates that the demand for LED chips will reach 24 next year.