For the LED industry, the year of the horse is definitely a year of Pentium, but I still have to be careful with the company!
Industry experts said that the development of emerging industries has a leap, such as the LED industry has not yet developed to maturity, it has entered the integration period.
Usually, the development cycle of an industry includes introduction period, growth period, maturity period and integration period.
The 2014LED integration year is both dangerous and organic.
Experts from the LED industry research institute believe that the LED industry will enter a new golden growth period in 2014.
Judging from the current situation of the industry, the development of all links in the industrial chain has exceeded expectations. It is normal that the price of products five years ago is more than 10 times different from the current price.
The cost performance of LED products has experienced rapid improvement. For example, the lighting efficiency of LED lamps has increased from 50 lumens/watt five years ago to over 100 lumens/watt at present.
The current situation of the opportunity LED industry, experts believe that LED industry investment in 2014 should grasp the three main lines, namely upstream (Sapphire material)
, Investment opportunities in the lighting field, and opportunities for industry merger and integration.
In the upstream of the industrial chain, the current production capacity of sapphire material as substrate is 80 million pieces, but the actual demand of LED chip factory is 30 million pieces, which has great deviation. At present, sapphire substrate enterprises are losing money, the future investment opportunity in sapphire field lies in its application in smart phones and smart watches.
In the upstream chip field, there are currently more than 50 enterprises, and the output value of China's local LED chip enterprises exceeds 7 billion. Zhang Hongbiao believes that the output value in 2014 is expected to reach 10 billion.
Compared with last year, the days of chip companies in 2014 will be better, and the profitability will increase.
In the first half of the year, chip supply is expected to be a bit tight and prices will be relatively stable.
However, it is obvious that the number of enterprises is still too large. Compared with sapphire materials, the LED chip field can see greater risks due to the lack of stimulation in new demand areas.
The midstream packaging field follows the technology-driven development trend.
In the words of Yan Xiaoming, the senior expert of Ruifeng Optoelectronics, who has been in the LED industry for 26 years, this industry, no matter what you think, is still cost-effective. Yan Xiaoming introduced, Chip Scale Packaging (
ChipScalePackage (CSP)The penetration of is the future development trend of the packaging industry.
However, removing the substrate and bracket and chip manufacturers making their own packaging will be a relatively large competitive crisis for traditional packaging enterprises.
In response to Dehao Runda's packaging revolution LED flip chip, which is very concerned in the industry, Xiao Xiaoming said that he is optimistic and believes that it is the future industry trend, but now it is not known whether the company can do well.
In the downstream LED application field, there are currently tens of thousands of enterprises.
Among them, there are many enterprises with an output value of more than 2 billion yuan, but none of them has an output value of more than yuan.
Zhang Hongbiao believes that one of the driving forces in this year's application field is LED lighting.
The industry has reached a consensus on this point, but there are differences in the industry's views on the scale and growth rate of the LED lighting market.
Guan Yong, general manager of sunshine lighting, believes that there should be a 50-year increase in lighting applications in 2014, and the growth rate of good enterprises will be even higher.
As for the demand explosion in the lighting field, the capital market has already reflected it in advance, and 2014 should be the time to fulfill its performance.
Guan Yong said that from the situation in January this year and February, it is still sure to cash in.