Industry: LED technology saturation period needs more than 10 years

A lecture on LED technology sponsored by Jiangmen National High-Tech Zone Optoelectronics Industry Association was officially held on May 15. Ye Guoguang, director of the marketing center of Guangdong deli Optoelectronics Co. , Ltd. , described the new generation of LED technology FlipChip (Flip Chip)With no packaging process; Other potential LED technologies include GaN homogeneous substrate, silicon substrate and other new technologies. The next five years will be an era in which patches will stick and flip will contend: 1. In 2015, everyone will be able to achieve 180 lumens per watt, and those that cannot and will be small will be eliminated. 2. Before 2015, the upstream market was still oversupply. Only technology can drive the LED market forward. Dress technology with high current density (SMD cost reduction)With inversion technology (Easy to package and integrate, reduce packaging costs)Will be the mainstream. 3. Disruptive technology (Silicon substrate or homogeneous substrate)It will never affect the market. 4. After 2015, technology is no longer the dominant force in the market. Brands and special specifications are the market forces. LED has entered mature industries. The division of labor in the world is clear: the upstream is in East Asia, the lamps are manufactured in mainland China, and the access and design are in Europe and America. In addition, high current drive is a good way to reduce costs. Non-packaging is only suitable for some application products. The non-packaging process is actually a LED chip coated with fluorescent powder without packaging process and directly soldered to the line substrate by SMT method. At present, companies that develop this process include: wafer photoelectric ELC (EmbeddedLEDChip); Lianjing optoelectronics and tsmc csp ( ChipScalePackage)Wafer Level Packaging; Crystal family and New Century FCOB (FlipChiponBoard)LEDiS, Match. Comparison between non-packaging process and traditional packaging: 1. At present, the technical route of non-packaging process has been established, but it still takes time in the industrialization process, which is about 23 times the cost of packaging process at present. 2. The optical problem has not been effectively solved. At present, brightness has no obvious advantage over traditional packaging. 3. If this process is to be adopted, most of the key equipment needs to be updated, resulting in an increase in the overall cost. 4. It is only suitable for some application products, for example, this process cannot be satisfied in terms of large-scale application products such as lamps. The influence of substrate on chip cost becomes smaller and smaller the influence of substrate on chip cost becomes smaller and smaller: the increase of substrate cost is due to the increase of sapphire wafer size, rather than the cost of substrate itself; There is currently no information on 6-inch silicon carbide. From the history of LED development in the past ten years, Ye Guoguang has found a rule: 1. Every time a revolutionary new technology (Can increase brightness by more than 30 at a time) After maturity, there will be a market and application explosion. 2. In recent years, due to the excessive expansion of production in mainland China, new technologies can only accumulate slowly and oversupply (The price dropped rapidly) With the gradual improvement of technology and the continuous development of PSS technology, the technological challenges seem to be coming. In addition, Ye Guoguang also believes that LED used to be, is now, and the future is still high technology; Technology saturation still needs more than 10 years of efforts; Some important early patents expired, and more new patents were increasing coverage; Efficiency Improvement (LM/W)Depends on technological progress; Cost reduction (LM/$)It also depends on technological progress; Technical strength determines product competitiveness; Technology input determines intellectual property capacity; The future of China's LED industry depends on the speed and extent of technological progress; The attitude of talent cultivation and research and development should learn from South Korea and Taiwan; Peer cooperation and resource integration are crucial to enhance the competitiveness of China's LED industry.