How big is the LED lighting source market?

2012 incandescent lamps and energy-saving lamps of domestic market demand respectively to 11. 7. 6 billion and 12. 6. 9 billion, the market demand for straight fluorescent lamps is 8. 0. 3 billion, the market demand for ring fluorescent lamps is 0. 8 billion, and the market demand for halogen tungsten lamps is 7. 5. 5 billion. These traditional lighting sources and lamps are the target replacement markets for LED lighting lamps. With the improvement of cost performance, LED lighting lamps will gradually enter these market fields, bringing huge market development space for them. The above-mentioned LED lighting market is viewed from the market of traditional light sources. It is believed that the market of traditional light sources is very large, so the market of LED lighting is also large. I think this simple inference is wrong. Don't look at the annual output and usage of traditional light sources, because their life span is very short and people have to replace them frequently. This is the fundamental reason for the large amount of traditional light sources. Incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps do not have a long life. The nominal life of energy-saving lamps is 6000 ~ 8000 hours. And the products on the market, the quality is better, can use 2 ~ 3 years. Poor quality, life is hard to say. The life of incandescent lamps is not long, and the quality is often difficult to say. For example, a new incandescent lamp exploded as soon as it was turned on. It is precisely because of the short life of incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps and energy-saving lamps that continuous and mass production is needed to supplement the demand. Household energy-saving lamps generally last only 8 hours a day, and the life span is less than 6000 hours after two years. Although the nominal life of energy-saving lamps is now 8000 hours, this is measured under standard conditions. The actual use conditions will be much worse than the standard conditions, so the actual service life will be much shorter. Compared with other existing light sources, LED does have many advantages. Although in theory, the life span of LED may be very long, but in terms of current technology, the actual application life of white LED is generally 20 thousand ~ 30 thousand hours. Assuming that the life of LED can be increased to 50 thousand hours in the past year or two, it can be used for about 17 years. That is to say, with energy-saving lamps, about 9 lamps will be changed in 17 years, and only one lamp will be changed with LED. Simply calculate that the output of LED lamps is only 1/9 of that of energy-saving lamps. People who have used halogen spotlights MR16 will have a profound experience, that is, their life is very short. If LED is used instead of halogen spotlights, the life of LED spotlights is much longer than that of halogen spotlights. Therefore, after using LED spotlights once, the replacement amount in the future will be much less than that of halogen spotlights. Therefore, the market volume of LED light sources cannot be simply analogized by the output of traditional light sources. It can be considered in this way. Due to the energy saving and long service life of LED light sources, people who did not use halogen spotlights because of their short service life may add LED decorative lights. Thus expanding the market volume of some LED light sources. Even so, the market volume of LED light sources will not be larger than that of traditional light sources. It has been reported that Japan has replaced LED bulb lamps. After more than a year, market sales have dropped sharply. It's not that people don't look down on it, it's not that the quality performance is not good, it's not because of the price, but it's almost replaced, it's close to saturation. If the life span of white LED really reaches 100 thousand hours or even longer, it is a good thing from the perspective of social resources, but it is not necessarily from the perspective of enterprises and businesses. However, the above prediction of market volume is aimed at LED light sources with better quality. In the future, LED light source products are very likely to be of poor quality and low price. This is the way fluorescent lamps, energy-saving lamps and electronic ballasts go. At the beginning of the development of energy-saving lamps and electronic ballasts, the state also gave strong support and financial support, and relevant standards came out early (Regarding the standard, LED is behind) At that time, many factories, research institutes and universities were developing electronic ballasts, which was similar to the situation LED today. The difference is that the initial development of energy-saving lamps and electronic ballasts is indeed a lot of units in accordance with the standard requirements, and later it is difficult to promote due to high prices. Turning to cut corners and doing everything possible to reduce costs, the price has been greatly reduced, which has the market, but the quality has plummeted. The LED industry is not very good at the beginning of the product because there are too many laymen involved. Moreover, LED lighting products have been developed for at least 5 or 6 years, and there are no standardized general products until now. The price is difficult to reduce, and the domestic market is difficult to open. In the future, there will still be some LED lighting sources in the market, and low prices are also possible, but the quality is not optimistic.